@PhDThesis{Bezerra:2017:AvPo,
author = "Bezerra, Karine Rocha Aguiar",
title = "Os fatores influenciadores da vulnerabilidade socioecon{\^o}mica
e ambiental no Cear{\'a}: uma avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o
pol{\'{\i}}tico-institucional",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2017",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2017-05-18",
keywords = "an{\'a}lise espacial, capacidade adaptativa, gastos
p{\'u}blicos, transfer{\^e}ncias fiscais, vulnerabilidade.
spatial analysis, adaptive capacity, public expenditure, tax
transfers, vulnerability.",
abstract = "As varia{\c{c}}{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas est{\~a}o sendo
estudadas e observadas em todo mundo e suas consequ{\^e}ncias
mais severas comprometem a sustentabilidade do planeta. Em
regi{\~o}es, como a semi{\'a}rida nordestina, as adversidades
dos impactos das secas afetam direta ou indiretamente a
popula{\c{c}}{\~a}o, agravando assim, a situa{\c{c}}{\~a}o de
pobreza pr{\'e}-existente. Na busca pela manuten{\c{c}}{\~a}o
do seu bem-estar as pessoas intensificam a rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o de
explora{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos recursos naturais. Neste ciclo vicioso,
a jun{\c{c}}{\~a}o de tais peculiaridades corrobora o
desencadeamento do processo de desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o na
regi{\~a}o. Esse processo {\'e} resultado da
varia{\c{c}}{\~a}o clim{\'a}tica (incid{\^e}ncia de secas mais
frequentes e mais severas), das a{\c{c}}{\~o}es antr{\'o}picas
desordenadas associadas aos fatores f{\'{\i}}sicos locais. Tais
aspectos contribuem para que a popula{\c{c}}{\~a}o local se
torne, ou n{\~a}o, vulner{\'a}vel {\`a}s adversidades
socioambientais a que est{\~a}o submetidas. Neste contexto, essa
pesquisa tem como objetivos: 1) identificar os fatores que
contribuem para o aumento ou redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o da
vulnerabilidade das popula{\c{c}}{\~o}es triplamente afetadas
{\`a} desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o, {\`a} seca e {\`a} pobreza
nos munic{\'{\i}}pios cearenses e como essa condi{\c{c}}{\~a}o
de exposi{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\'e} influenciada pelas
pol{\'{\i}}ticas de gest{\~a}o de risco e 2) entender como a
vulnerabilidade das popula{\c{c}}{\~o}es pode (ou n{\~a}o) ser
influenciada por pol{\'{\i}}ticas p{\'u}blicas e quanto isso
afeta o desenvolvimento da sua capacidade adaptativa. Para tanto,
foi desenvolvido, primeiramente, um {\'{\i}}ndice de
vulnerabilidade integrada que leva em considera{\c{c}}{\~a}o a
exposi{\c{c}}{\~a}o, a sensibilidade e a capacidade adaptativa
da popula{\c{c}}{\~a}o no Estado do Cear{\'a}. Ap{\'o}s esse
procedimento, foi realizada uma an{\'a}lise espacial
explorat{\'o}ria como crit{\'e}rio de sele{\c{c}}{\~a}o de
quatro munic{\'{\i}}pio-alvo (Piquet Carneiro, Itaitinga,
Poranga e Guai{\'u}ba) para a avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o
pol{\'{\i}}tico-institucional. Tal an{\'a}lise utilizou o
m{\'e}todo de investiga{\c{c}}{\~a}o dedutiva para investigar
os aspectos pol{\'{\i}}ticos, institucionais e de
pol{\'{\i}}ticas p{\'u}blicas que favoreceram ou n{\~a}o o
desenvolvimento da capacidade adaptativa da popula{\c{c}}{\~a}o
em quest{\~a}o. Usou-se de dados referentes {\`a}s
transfer{\^e}ncias fiscais do governo federal e das despesas
p{\'u}blicas municipais. O {\'{\i}}ndice de Vulnerabilidade
Integrada diminuiu entre os anos avaliados, principalmente pela
redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o do {\'{\I}}ndice de Sensibilidade
(impulsionado pela melhoria das condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es
socioecon{\^o}micas da popula{\c{c}}{\~a}o) e pelo aumento da
contribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o do {\'{\I}}ndice de Capacidade
Adaptativa (devido a implementa{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 80% das
pol{\'{\i}}ticas p{\'u}blicas consideradas). Verificou-se que
em termos de recursos recebidos pelo governo do Estado do
Cear{\'a} nos anos de 2004, 2007 e 2010, os temas
priorit{\'a}rios concentraram-se massivamente em Encargos,
Sa{\'u}de e Assist{\^e}ncia Social, representando juntos quase
91% do valor total transferido. Essa prioriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o foi
verificada tamb{\'e}m nos quatro munic{\'{\i}}pios avaliados.
Quanto {\`a}s despesas municipais, os gastos concentraram-se em
Educa{\c{c}}{\~a}o e Cultura e a Sa{\'u}de e Saneamento nos
dois anos avaliados (2000 e 2010). Concluiu-se que as
vari{\'a}veis que mais contribu{\'{\i}}ram para o aumento do
{\'{\i}}ndice de vulnerabilidade em alguns munic{\'{\i}}pios
estavam ligadas {\`a}s {\'a}reas n{\~a}o priorizadas pela
pol{\'{\i}}tica fiscal e or{\c{c}}ament{\'a}ria {\`a}
{\'e}poca. Sugere-se, dentre outros trabalhos futuros, a
realiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o de cen{\'a}rios futuros para a
vulnerabilidade no Estado do Cear{\'a} considerando tais
rela{\c{c}}{\~o}es, dando destaque as a{\c{c}}{\~o}es
constitucionais firmadas ou pretendidas no contexto
pol{\'{\i}}tico atual. ABSTRACT: Climate variations are being
studied and observed around the world and their most severe
consequences compromise the sustainability of the planet. In
regions such as the semi-arid Northeast, the adversities of
drought impacts directly or indirectly affect the population, thus
exacerbating the pre-existing poverty situation. In the search for
well-being livelihood, people intensify natural resources
exploitation. In this vicious cycle, the combination of these
peculiarities corroborates the triggering of the desertification
process in the region. This process is the result of the climatic
variation (incidence of more frequent and more severe droughts)
and the disordered anthropic actions associated to the local
physical factors. These aspects contribute to the local population
becoming vulnerable to socio-environmental adversities. In this
context, this research has the following objectives: 1) to
identify the factors that contribute to increase or reduce the
vulnerability of the populations affected by desertification,
drought and poverty in the municipalities of Cear{\'a} State and
how this exposure condition is influenced by the management
policies, and 2) understand how vulnerability of populations may
(or may not) be influenced by public policies and how much it
affects the development of their adaptive capacity. Therefore, an
integrated vulnerability index was developed that takes into
account the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the
population in the Cear{\'a} State. After this procedure, an
exploratory spatial analysis was performed as a criterion for the
selection of four target municipalities (Aquiraz, Juazeiro do
Norte, Senador Pompeu and Piquet Carneiro) for the
political-institutional evaluation. This analysis used the method
of deductive research to investigate the political, institutional
and public policy aspects that favored or not the development of
the adaptive capacity of the population in question. Fiscal
transfers from the federal government and municipal public
expenditures data were used. Overall, the Integrated Vulnerability
Index decreased between the evaluated years, mainly due to the
reduction of the Sensitivity Index (driven by the improvement of
the socioeconomic conditions of the population) and by the
increase of the Adaptive Capacity Index (due to the implementation
of 80% of the public policies considered. It was verified that in
terms of resources received by the government of the Cear{\'a}
State in the years 2004, 2007 and 2010, the priority themes
concentrated massively on Charges, Health and Social Assistance,
representing together almost 91% of the total amount transferred.
This prioritization was also verified in the four municipalities
evaluated. As for municipal expenditures, the spending was
concentrated in Education and Culture and Health and Sanitation in
the two evaluated years (2000 and 2010). It was concluded that in
the municipalities where there was an increase in the level of
vulnerability, the variables that contributed the most were
related to the areas of infrastructure and agriculture, which were
not prioritized by fiscal and budgetary policies at the time. It
is suggested, among other future works, the realization of future
scenarios for vulnerability in the Cear{\'a} State considering
such relations, highlighting the constitutional actions signed or
intended in the current political context.",
committee = "Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra de (presidente) and Lahsen, Myanna Hvid
(orientadora) and Lemos, Maria Carmen de Mello (orientadora) and
Toledo, Peter, Mann de and Lima, Patr{\'{\i}}cia Ver{\^o}nica
Pinheiro Sales and Rodrigues, Maria Ivoneide Vital",
englishtitle = "The influencing factors of socioeconomic and environmental
vulnerability in Cear{\'a}: a political-institutional
evaluation",
language = "pt",
pages = "297",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3P2CS9B",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3P2CS9B",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}